| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Tarleton State | 13-20 | 1394.2 | -22.2 | 1372.0 | 51.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Nebraska | 7-56 | 1372.0 | -33.7 | 1338.4 | 4.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Iowa State | 7-55 | 1338.4 | -1.7 | 1336.7 | 3.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | South Florida | 6-14 | 1336.7 | +37.9 | 1374.5 | 4.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Miami (OH) | 24-20 | 1374.5 | +29.3 | 1403.9 | 14.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Sacramento State | 38-10 | 1403.9 | +18.7 | 1422.5 | 62.2% |