| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Lafayette | 26-7 | 1473.7 | +5.4 | 1479.1 | 88.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 20-34 | 1479.1 | +11.6 | 1490.7 | 19.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Liberty | 23-13 | 1490.7 | +30.2 | 1520.9 | 50.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Louisville | 17-40 | 1520.9 | -16.5 | 1504.4 | 14.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Ohio | 20-35 | 1504.4 | -12.3 | 1492.1 | 33.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Toledo | 28-23 | 1487.1 | +31.1 | 1518.2 | 21.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 6-27 | 1518.2 | -70.3 | 1447.9 | 76.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Kent State | 21-24 | 1447.9 | -32.1 | 1415.8 | 83.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Buffalo | 3-28 | 1415.8 | -47.7 | 1368.1 | 53.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 21-27 | 1368.1 | -8.7 | 1359.4 | 56.7% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | L | Akron | 16-19 | 1364.2 | -20.7 | 1343.5 | 61.5% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 45-14 | 1343.5 | +33.6 | 1377.1 | 84.8% |